Do you know what the Brexit backstop is? The term came into use during the mounting Brexit panic in 2018. About the same time the British government realized they had a dead-end mess on their hands. A mess in which the UK could not go back to the EU, but leaving was catastrophic, clearly.
It’s all about borders
Nobody who voted to leave the EU (only 53.4% of English voters dragged the entire UK with them; Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales voted to remain in the EU) anticipated the effects of the UK leaving the EU. Least of all the British government. In a gush of phoney populism, they wanted their borders back (sound familiar?). Leaving will have dire effects on free trade, and the free movement of goods. The UK will pay a lot more for everything.
Will rationing follow hoarding?
Imagine the gridlock of the trucks stopped by overwhelmed customs officials. Trucks traveling from Britain to Ireland, from France to Britain, from the Republic to Northern Ireland. Do you see the problem? Of course you do. Unfortunately, British Brexiteers and the British government experienced a failure of imagination.
Leaving the EU affects the free movement of humans, too. Multi-national companies are pulling up stakes and moving to Europe proper. Or in the case of Honda, just announced this week, moving to…where?…but moving. Dutch students at the London School of Economics are nervous. Banks are leaving London and opening offices in Dublin and Frankfurt. EU and EU.
UK residents are hoarding goods like medicines. The giant UK supermarket Tesco has leased more storage to hoard. Ireland, which will remain in the EU, provides Tesco and others with meat and dairy products, which will have to cross a border, incur a tax.
Time for a sports analogy
The term backstop comes from cricket, a poorly understood game in the U.S.. The backstop is the player positioned at the boundary of the playing field. His job is to keep the ball within the playing field, should the player closer to the batsman miss it. Think outfielder in American baseball. If the infielder misses, the outfielder prevents scoring by the batting team, or at least minimizes the damage.
In terms of Brexit, how should the backstop work? It’s been rolled out as an insurance policy for when the UK leaves the EU. A policy that prevents the creation of a hard border between the island-sharing Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The Republic is a sovereign nation; Northern Ireland is part of the UK.
How can the backstop work? By the UK, including Northern Ireland, remaining in a customs union with the EU, but there’s been no movement on that. Otherwise, there will have to be customs checks on the Irish island. Customs requires physical checks. Borders, hard or soft (think Trump’s wall versus the Democrats’ idea of border security), and border stops. There is no technology outside the labs at NASA that can perform these checks.
Why is Northern Ireland unlike Scotland or Wales?
A hard border was removed between Ireland and Northern Ireland in 1998. The acceptance of the Good Friday Peace Agreement between Ireland, Northern Ireland, Britain, and the EU brought peace. A patrolled border was no longer needed. Everyone was sick of barbed wire, patrolling soldiers with rifles, and the violence contained. The people of Northern Ireland and the Republic do not want a border between them again. It would be reminiscent of 1970’s sectarian violence, and might even rekindle the violence.
When the UK referendum was cast, the people of Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. The people of the Republic have never considered leaving the EU. The best thing Ireland ever had, EU membership has provided a good economy and even improved trade with the UK.
Thousands of Irish people travel between the two parts of the one island every day—to work, to school, to shop, and to visit relatives and doctors. In addition to British Brexiteers, who don’t care, the only people who don’t mind a hard border are supporters of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party. Thinking of themselves as British not Irish, the DUP want to stay in the UK no matter what. They are anti-EU, anti-Good Friday Peace Agreement, anti-backstop, and anti-progressive in general.
The 1998 Good Friday Peace (Belfast) Agreement is the piece of all this that makes Northern Ireland unlike Scotland or Wales. The agreement consolidated a hard-won peace in Northern Ireland. It also codified a special relationship between the Republic of Ireland, Britain, and Northern Ireland. It grants all citizens of Northern Ireland—who hold British citizenship—the right to Republic of Ireland citizenship. The Republic has been flooded with applications from Northern Irish citizens.
The agreement also describes the loophole by which Northern Ireland can vote to rejoin the Republic of Ireland, from which it was carved in 1921 (for that history, see “Borders: Ireland’s Brexit Killer” December 21, 2017https://www.constancegemmett.com/borders-irelands-brexit-killer/), and thereby rejoin the EU. Going into Brexit the UK understood that it would not be allowed to rejoin the EU.
Baby please come back
So what will happen? What else is on the table? A member of the British government’s Exiting the EU Committee asked Bertie Ahern, former Taoiseach (sort of the Irish prime minister), whether the Republic of Ireland would consider leaving the EU and…rejoining the UK. Gulp. Take a look, it’s a pretty funny moment https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/i-m-exhausted-explaining-to-british-people-the-geography-of-their-own-country-1.3797959). Ahern did a good job of summarizing 800 years of a troubled and complicated relationship between Ireland and Britain, ending with a firm no (for details of the partition of Northern Ireland, see also “Will Brexit Reunite Ireland?” June 6th, 2017, https://www.constancegemmett.com/will-brexit-reunite-ireland/).
My backstop
My personal favorite backstop is the reunification of the Republic and Northern Ireland, this time, as one sovereign and independent nation, which has left the UK. And who knows, Scotland may renew their 2016 referendum to leave the UK too. After all, 62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU—this time, their vote may swing to leaving the UK.
All of this is scheduled for a big moment, Britain’s “crash-out,” on March 29th. Will the British government negotiate more time or a deal of some sort? Prolong the agony, or find a way out? Stay tuned.
“Borders: Ireland’s Brexit Killer” December 21, 2017https://www.constancegemmett.com/borders-irelands-brexit-killer/
“Will Brexit Reunite Ireland?” June 6th, 2017, https://www.constancegemmett.com/will-brexit-reunite-ireland/
“Will Ireland Redefine Brexit?” June 14th, 2017 https://www.constancegemmett.com/will-ireland-redefine-brexit/).